Though in this case it’s boiling, and Israel is watching the rapidly devolving situation right next door in Egypt. They are looking at having to re-evaluate the situation in terms of the worst-case scenario.
Although nominally enemy states, Israel, Egypt and the United States have cooperated at the highest levels of military command and with the intelligence services of all three countries, and you can bet your boots there’s one heck of a lot of communicating going on right now between all of them.
Hosni Mubarak probably has a better chance of riding this thing out than the Shah of Iran did when faced with Khomeini’s revolution. But if he doesn’t, the generals who now so staunchly support him will give him a gentle nudge into a nice dignified retirement some place, and the country will choose a new president in accordance with its constitution.
Egypt, though a muslim country, is largely a secular nation. How far the radical Islamists will get in influencing events in Egypt is difficult to judge at this point. One thing is for sure… the generals are not about to relinquish power to some revolutionary cabal. Right now, the army holds all the cards. They have, at least to this point, shown remarkable restraint in dealing with the protesters.
Our friends in Israel remember the old days, when they faced an openly hostile Egypt just over the border. No one wants a return to those days, but it’s far better for Israel to remain in an advanced state of readiness than to be unpleasantly surprised.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Stuxnet worm continues to chew its way through Iran’s military industrial complex, happily burrowing down and leaving havoc in its wake.
Bon appetit, little worm!
Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis
© Skip MacLure 2011
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